Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test at 1.1602 coincided with the moment the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, as seen on the chart, this did not lead to a significant decline.

A lack of economic data from the Eurozone contributed to EUR/USD consolidating in a narrow range with minimal volatility. However, in the second half of the day, we expect new home sales data from the U.S., as well as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. These seemingly unrelated events could trigger a notable spike in volatility.

New home sales volume serves as a barometer of consumer confidence and mortgage affordability. An increase in sales suggests buyer optimism and willingness to take on long-term commitments, while a decline may indicate concerns over economic stability and high borrowing costs. In a context of falling inflation and lower interest rates, new home sales data becomes especially important for assessing the outlook of the construction sector and the broader economy. Powell's speech, in turn, offers investors a direct insight into the Fed's views on current conditions and future policy. The market will closely scrutinize his tone for hints about potential easing or tightening of monetary policy. Any statements regarding inflation, employment, or economic growth may prompt immediate reactions in financial markets, influencing exchange rates, stock prices, and bond yields.

As for intraday strategy, I'll be relying more on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price level of 1.1622 (green line on the chart) with the target rising to 1.1684. At 1.1684, I plan to exit the market and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rally in the euro will depend on weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1587 price level, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1622 and 1.1684 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1587 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1531, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong data.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1622 level, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1587 and 1.1531 can then be expected.

Chart Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price where buying the instrument is possible
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or closing manually, as further growth is unlikely above this level
• Thin red line – entry price where selling the instrument is possible
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or closing manually, as further decline is unlikely below this level
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, use overbought and oversold zones as guidance

Important:Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market emotions are a losing strategy for any intraday trader.