The EUR/USD currency pair is maintaining a bullish tone on the 4-hour timeframe. While the British pound has shown a fairly sharp decline in recent days, the euro has not, and continues to trade above the moving average line. Therefore, the uptrend remains intact, and further growth is expected—especially since the price bounced off the moving average on Friday.

However, this week the technical picture may change very quickly. Over the next five days, traders are facing a large number of important events, including labor market, unemployment, and business activity data from the U.S., a Federal Reserve meeting, Donald Trump's "Tariff Hike Day", and trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU. Although we believe that the macroeconomic background currently plays a minor role for traders and that FOMC meetings have long been purely formal, any of these events could provoke a significant market reaction.

Thus, it's impossible to predict where the pair will be by the end of the week. We can only suggest a few possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: If a trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. is signed (assuming it happens), it is unlikely to have a positive effect on the dollar. Recall that all of Trump's trade deals impose the same tariffs that would apply even without trade agreements—essentially making them symbolic rather than meaningful.

Scenario 2: The dollar may show moderate growth (toward recent local lows) purely on technical grounds, potentially supported by fundamentals or macroeconomic data. If U.S. data turn out positive, this does not guarantee dollar strength, as the market has repeatedly ignored dollar-supportive data in the past six months, focusing instead on the trade war and Trump's policies. But if the technical setup favors a decline in EUR/USD, then good U.S. data could support this movement.

For example, if the price drops below the moving average on the 4-hour chart or the critical line on the 4-hour or daily chart, it will be much easier for the dollar to regain strength.

On Friday, the only report from the Eurozone was the German business climate index, which was unlikely to attract any attention even in theory. Currently, traders have more pressing themes to focus on, and minor reports are not a priority.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the past five trading days, as of July 27, is 70 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect movement between 1.1673 and 1.1813 on Monday. The long-term linear regression channel is pointed upward, still indicating an uptrend. The CCI indicator previously entered the oversold area, signaling the resumption of the uptrend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has resumed its uptrend. At the very least, the price has consolidated above the moving average and continues to move north. The U.S. dollar remains under intense pressure from Trump's policies, both foreign and domestic. In recent weeks, the dollar has shown slight gains, but from our perspective, this does not justify medium-term buying.

If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered toward 1.1658 and 1.1597 on purely technical grounds. As long as the price remains above the moving average, long positions with targets at 1.1780 and 1.1813 remain valid as part of the ongoing trend.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.