Trade Review and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.86 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today's meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to bring many developments. Without a doubt, this will be one of the key catalysts shaping the direction of financial markets in the near future. The global investment community is eagerly watching for the Fed's next move as it tries to control inflation while avoiding a recession. Clearly, the most prudent course of action would be to leave everything unchanged. Should there be any hint of a rate cut, pressure on the dollar will increase, and the USD/JPY pair could see a sharp decline. Otherwise, the dollar may reclaim its leadership. In either case, the FOMC decision is likely to trigger a strong market reaction. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and carefully assess the risks associated with various outcomes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 148.21 (green line on the chart), with a target at 148.94 (thicker green line). Around 148.94, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A continuation of the current uptrend supports the case for further gains. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 147.83 level twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal. A rise toward 148.21 and 148.94 may follow.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below the 147.83 level (red line on the chart), which may result in a sharp drop. The key target for sellers will be 147.14, where I plan to exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Pressure on the pair is likely to return if the Fed adopts a dovish stance. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests the 148.21 level twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. The expected targets are 147.83 and 147.14.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested take-profit level or a point for manually fixing profit, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested take-profit level or a point for manually fixing profit, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – always refer to overbought and oversold zones before entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before key fundamental reports are released to avoid exposure to sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid depletion of your account, especially if you don't apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear and well-defined plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.