আরও দেখুন
13.08.2025 12:29 AM
On Tuesday, the dollar received its first piece of positive news in the past few weeks. The market has already forgotten that Donald Trump skillfully signed trade agreements with Japan and the European Union, as at the same time, the U.S. president introduced and increased several dozen other tariffs. As a result, the negative once again outweighed the positive.
The extension of the "negotiation period" with China is, in fact, neither good nor bad news for the dollar. Essentially, the two sides agreed to keep negotiating without raising tariffs. There was not enough time to finalize a major trade deal (remember, we are talking about the world's two largest economies), so, to avoid escalating tensions, Beijing and Washington agreed to refrain from imposing new tariffs over the next 90 days while talks continue.
In this situation, I believe the biggest winners are American consumers, for whom goods from China could have risen in price by 54%. That was Trump's latest proposed tariff rate for Beijing. It is currently not in effect due to the temporary truce, but it could be implemented after 90 days.
It is important to keep in mind that any truce or deal with Trump does not guarantee the absence of new demands from the U.S. president in the future. This week, the White House has already indicated that Trump is seriously considering raising tariffs on China as punishment for purchasing Russian energy resources. Who exactly Trump would be punishing in this case is not entirely clear. Still, a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled for August 15, so there is hope that at least until Friday, no new tariffs will be announced.
From here, everything will depend on two things: the success of negotiations between the U.S. and Russian leaders, and whether Kyiv agrees to the proposed terms. I have little doubt that the presidents of Russia and the U.S. will negotiate with each other without giving much thought to Ukraine's future. However, it is now crucial to stop the conflict at any cost—something Trump has been promising the world since last year. First, the conflict must end, and people must stop dying, and then a broader round of negotiations involving all parties to the conflict can be held.
Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this section of the trend may extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions with targets around 1.1875 (which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. I assume that the formation of wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is a good time for buying.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive section of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave structure, but at the moment, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward section of the trend are now located near 1.4017. At present, I assume that the formation of the downward wave 4 has been completed. Therefore, I expect the upward sequence of waves to continue, and I am considering buying positions with a target of 1.4017.
