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23.09.2025 12:27 PMOn Monday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency and rose to the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. The start of the new day (Tuesday) shows that bears have not completely left the market and have not abandoned their intentions. A consolidation below the 1.1789–1.1802 zone will work in favor of the US dollar and a new decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.1695. The upward process may not be over.
The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, at this time, the trend remains "bullish." The latest labor market data and the changed Fed policy outlook support only bullish traders, while the bears are left empty-handed. For the trend to shift to "bearish," the pair must fall to the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645.
On Monday, there was no news background, and the bears predictably retreated. However, I am not convinced that they have surrendered. Today, within the next hour, European PMI indices will be published, which could steer traders in a completely different direction. I still do not see what the bears can rely on to continue their offensive, while the trend remains "bullish." In my view, the latest ECB and Fed meetings did not change the balance of power between the euro and the dollar. No major economic statistics have recently been published in Europe or the US. On Monday, there was no news at all. Donald Trump did not impose new tariffs, Lisa Cook remains in her post, and the efforts of Stephen Miran are not enough for the FOMC to ease monetary policy at every meeting. Therefore, nothing has changed, and I do not believe in a large-scale bear offensive. I expect the upward process of the European currency to resume.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal channel, allowing traders to count on further growth. A rebound from the 161.8% Fibonacci level – 1.1854 – worked in favor of the US dollar and some decline toward 1.1680. A consolidation above 1.1854 will allow traders to expect further growth toward 1.2066. No imminent divergences are observed on any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
During the last reporting week, professional players closed 4,788 long positions and opened 3,130 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 253,000, while short positions are at 135,000. The gap is nearly twofold. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above: they reflect strong accumulation of positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.
For thirty-two weeks in a row, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they can create numerous long-term and structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On September 23, the economic calendar contains plenty of interesting entries, among which Powell's speech stands out. The news background will influence market sentiment throughout Tuesday.
EUR/USD forecast and trader advice: Selling the pair is possible today if it closes again below the 1.1789–1.1802 support zone on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1695. Buying will be possible today on a rebound from the 1.1789–1.1802 zone with a target at 1.1896, or on a rebound from the 1.1695 level.
Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
