Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1701 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by nearly 20 points.

Positive reports on manufacturing PMI in the eurozone certainly brought a glimmer of hope to the region's economic outlook. The increase in manufacturing output, reflected in the PMI data, indicated a possible recovery and strengthening of production capacity. However, despite these encouraging signals, the overall picture is overshadowed by rather disappointing data from the services sector. This segment, which accounts for a significant share of the eurozone's GDP, is once again facing serious difficulties. Reduced consumer spending due to sharply rising prices, the consequences of the war in the Middle East, and overall uncertainty may have led to stagnation or even decline in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, and personal services.

In the second half of the day, close attention will shift to economic data from the United States. The key indicators today will be the PMIs covering both the manufacturing and services sectors. The manufacturing PMI will serve as a reliable indicator of the health of the industrial sector. Meanwhile, the services PMI, which represents the backbone of the U.S. economy, will reflect trends in key areas, including retail. However, the most significant event of the day will be the release of the composite PMI. This comprehensive indicator, combining data from both manufacturing and services, will provide an overall picture of business activity in the United States.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1694 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1712. At 1.1712, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after positive news from the Middle East.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1678 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1694 and 1.1712 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1678 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1645, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1694 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1678 and 1.1645 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.