US President Donald Trump is unlikely to follow through on his threat to impose sweeping 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. Many analysts deem this scenario improbable, if not outright unrealistic. Experts argue that such a move would only exacerbate politically sensitive inflationary pressures and risk turning the global economy on its head.

Earlier in July, the White House announced that secondary sanctions, including a 100% tariff, could be imposed on countries that continue purchasing Russian crude oil and petroleum products, unless Moscow agrees to a major peace deal with Ukraine within 50 days. The deadline expires in early September 2025.

"We find that secondary tariffs may be too blunt of an instrument for the administration to use," Fernando Ferreira, the director of geopolitical risk service at consultancy Rapidan Energy Group, said. "If you're willing to go with the nuclear option by removing 4.5 plus million barrels a day from the market, and you're willing to cut off commercial ties with other countries because they're importing Russian oil, you're going to risk massive oil price spikes and a meltdown of the global economy."

Clay Seigle, senior fellow and James Schlesinger chair in energy and geopolitics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, echoed that concern. According to Seigle, slapping a 100% tariff on nations importing Russian crude would slash global supply and send oil prices soaring.

Another factor fueling market skepticism is the Trump administration’s weak enforcement of a previous 25% tariff on buyers of Venezuelan oil and its broader inability to implement effective energy sanctions against Moscow.

Similar doubts are surfacing among executives at Indian refineries, major consumers of Russian crude, who remain unconvinced that Trump will act on his warning. For now, they see no reason to curb their imports.