Beijing has demonstrated that even the most ordinary goods can be used as weapons of mass economic disruption in geopolitical games. This time, American soybeans are in the crosshairs, and the impact appears to be more severe than anticipated.

From January through August 2025, China has not purchased a single shipment of crop soybeans from the United States. Instead, the country struck record deals with Brazil, Argentina, and most symbolically, Russia. As a result, 22 million tons of soybeans harvested by American farmers last autumn remain piled up in storage, transforming from an asset into a liability. Storage fees rise daily, and interest rates stay elevated, creating a perfect storm for business headaches.

Some experts argue that it took China just five years to "neutralize America's biggest bargaining chip." Russia, meanwhile, has not wasted time. Soybean production in the Far East has expanded sharply, and exports have doubled. "A food corridor of de-dollarization is emerging, with the dollar now a complete outsider," analysts note. Reality has hit US President Donald Trump hard, and the impact has been significant.

The efforts to resolve the situation seem desperate. On August 11, after Trump urged China to quadruple its purchases, US soybean prices soared to a two-week high. These moves resemble resuscitation attempts more than healthy market growth. China, the world's largest soybean importer, has not yet pre-purchased soybeans from the upcoming US harvest, clearly relishing its stronger bargaining position.

The irony is that this scenario has played out before. During Trump's first term, the trade war with China already forced US soybean producers to feel the sting of losing their biggest customer when Beijing turned to Brazil. As the saying goes, history repeats itself.

"On Beijing's side, there have been quite a few signals that China is prepared to forego US soya beans altogether in 2025," Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay said. The numbers speak for themselves. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of US soybeans, compared to 74.65 million tons from Brazil. 

“We're all working to diversify away from China, but China is critically important for us,” Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soybean Export Council, admitted. In diplomatic language, this means that losing access to Chinese demand would result in sharp revenue declines and oversupply pressures for US soybean producers.

It remains to be seen whether soybeans will become the new symbol of trade wars or just another chapter in the long-running economic melodrama between the superpowers.