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Bernstein sees BTC as main beneficiary of sovereign currency devaluations

Bernstein sees BTC as main beneficiary of sovereign currency devaluations

Investment firm Bernstein published a forecast that Bitcoin will reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, with an interim record high of $150,000 expected by mid‑2027. As Gautam Chugani, the firm’s lead analyst, notes, the forecast is based on Bernstein’s proprietary price‑to‑marginal‑cost valuation model and the persistence of the historical four‑year market cycle. Bernstein calls the flagship cryptocurrency the main beneficiary of the so‑called devaluation trade.
The analysts’ investment thesis rests on the end of a 40‑year era of falling interest rates and a record rise in sovereign debt among advanced economies. Higher government bond yields trigger a self‑reinforcing cycle of rising debt‑servicing costs and expanding budget deficits. Bernstein assesses that, when faced with a choice between harsh fiscal austerity and the covert devaluation of national currencies, policymakers will inevitably opt for currency depreciation as the least electorally destructive scenario. In that environment, BTC functions as a leading hard asset because of its capped supply, developed institutional infrastructure, and a stable holder base (about 60% of coins are controlled by long‑term investors who tolerate drawdowns in excess of 50%).
Separately, the analysts adjusted their price target for shares of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), lowering it from $450 to $350 per share while maintaining an Outperform rating. They emphasized that the company retains a key market advantage, controlling roughly 4% of total global BTC issuance.

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