Trade Analysis and Advice for the Euro

The price test at 1.1351 occurred just as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, a large downward move did not materialize, leading to losses being locked in.

Retail sales data from the eurozone had little effect on the EUR/USD pair's direction, keeping the market within a sideways range. Investors appear to be waiting for more significant macroeconomic signals before taking a more decisive stance. In particular, attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where decisions on interest rates and future monetary policy guidance are expected.

The Fed's actions regarding interest rates, as well as the follow-up speech by Chairman Jerome Powell, will have a substantial impact on the financial markets and the U.S. economy. Traders and investors expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged, maintaining a restrictive stance aimed at combating inflation.

Following the rate decision, Jerome Powell always holds a press conference to explain the FOMC's reasoning and share projections for future policy direction. These press briefings are crucial in shaping market expectations and clarifying the Fed's intentions. Every word from Powell is analyzed for signs of a "hawkish" or "dovish" bias, which can significantly affect the dollar. In the current situation, a dovish tone that supports economic growth would be favorable for strengthening the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenario #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches the 1.1378 level (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.1429. At 1.1429, I plan to exit long positions and consider shorting the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point retracement from the entry point. Euro growth can be expected along the trend if rates remain unchanged. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1348 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish reversal. A move toward 1.1378 and 1.1429 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price hits 1.1348 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1303 for profit-taking and a potential bounce-back buy from that level (expecting a 20–25 point retracement). Pressure on the pair may return today if the Fed strikes a dovish tone. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1378 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A move toward 1.1348 and 1.1303 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated price to set a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, as further growth is unlikely above this level
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated price to set a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, as further decline is unlikely below this level
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to watch for overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major economic reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.