Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1269 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid market entry point. As a result, the pair gained 20 points.

As anticipated, the lack of significant economic data from the eurozone supported the euro's strengthening in the first half of the trading day. The absence of fresh negative news gave traders an opportunity to speculate on a partial recovery from the losses seen during the Asian session. However, the euro's upward potential is likely limited.

Today's release of U.S. GDP data for the first quarter will shed light on the pace of the U.S. economy's slowdown earlier this year. Analysts will closely examine this figure to assess the reliability of the current economic recovery and its implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected results could strengthen the dollar and raise the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes.

The jobless claims data, also due later today, will serve as an important indicator of labor market health. A rise in claims could signal employment weakness, negatively affecting consumer spending and, in turn, economic growth. Conversely, a decline in claims would confirm labor market stability and could support positive investor sentiment.

Pending home sales data will also be published today, providing insight into housing market activity. This metric is considered a leading indicator of future home sales and offers a sense of buyer sentiment and mortgage accessibility. A decline in pending sales could suggest a housing market slowdown, which may impact the broader economy.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro at 1.1306 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1348. At 1.1348, I plan to exit long positions and consider shorting for a 30–35 point pullback. Expect euro strength only after weak U.S. data. Important: Confirm that the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise before buying.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy if the price tests 1.1274 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a reversal to the upside. Targets would be 1.1306 and 1.1348.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after a decline to 1.1274 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1227, where I will exit and consider reversing with a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair may return following today's U.S. data. Important: Confirm that the MACD is below zero and just beginning to fall before selling.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling if the price tests 1.1306 twice while MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and likely trigger a reversal. Expect a drop toward 1.1274 and 1.1227.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level; further growth above this is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level; further decline below this is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Use overbought and oversold zones for guidance when entering the market.

Important Note for Beginners:

Forex beginners must be extremely cautious when entering the market. Avoid trading during major fundamental data releases to prevent getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit may be at risk — especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.