The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has transformed into an upward structure and continues to maintain this formation. I believe there is little doubt that the transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar began, the entire wave pattern resembled a convincing downward trend segment. A corrective wave 2 was forming. However, weekly announcements by Trump about the introduction of various tariffs did their job. Demand for the U.S. currency began to fall rapidly, and now the entire trend segment, which began on January 13, has taken on an impulsive upward form.

Currently, the construction of wave 2 within wave 3 appears to have been completed. If this assumption is correct, the rise in quotations will continue over the coming weeks and months. However, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure unless Donald Trump completely reverses his adopted trade policy — something that is highly unlikely, as recent events have confirmed. At the moment, there is no reason to expect a strong rise in the U.S. currency.

The EUR/USD pair on Thursday remained virtually unchanged by the start of the U.S. session. The euro even gained slightly. However, by the end of the day, it may either fall or rise further. Let me remind you that the ECB's interest rate cut, which we saw again a few hours ago, is typically a reason for the market to reduce demand for the euro — in normal times and when the U.S. president is not Donald Trump. Currently, market participants are so alarmed by Trump's actions to "restore fairness" that they are paying no attention to such a "trifle" as an ECB rate cut. This is the eighth rate cut. And the ECB may not stop here.

Let me remind you that the most important rate for the ECB is the deposit rate. Today, it was lowered to 2%, which is considered a "neutral level." In simple terms, at this deposit rate level, the ECB expects that monetary policy will no longer exert downward pressure on inflation (which is no longer required) or on the economy (which, conversely, needs stimulation). However, there is no exact "neutral level." In other words, no one can say precisely where the interest rate should be to meet these two conditions.

Therefore, the ECB may continue to ease policy. Now it has another month and a half to track changes in the economy. Inflation is no longer required to slow down monthly, and the EU economy should start accelerating, even slightly. If this is not achieved, the ECB will continue cutting rates. And the euro will continue to rise, because at the moment the market simply does not care what measures the ECB is taking.

General Conclusions.

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave layout will depend entirely on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The construction of wave 3 of the upward trend has begun, and its targets may extend as far as the 1.25 level. Therefore, I consider buying with targets above the 1.1572 mark, corresponding to 423.6% Fibonacci levels. It should be noted that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

On the larger wave scale, it is evident that the wave layout has transformed into an upward trend. We are likely facing a long-term upward set of waves, although the news background, particularly from Donald Trump, could turn everything upside down once again.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures must be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.