Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1420 occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro and resulting in a decline of more than 35 pips.

The start of trade negotiations between Chinese and U.S. delegations has sparked a certain degree of optimism regarding the potential for mutual understanding and agreement. We're closely monitoring further developments and today's round of talks. The outcome of these negotiations will significantly impact the global economy. A successful conclusion may foster growth in trade and investment, while failure could trigger further escalation of the trade conflict and destabilize global markets.

Today is also marked by the release of data on changes in Italian industrial output and the Sentix Eurozone investor confidence index. A deterioration in industrial production figures may signal a slowdown in economic growth in Italy and across the eurozone. The Sentix investor confidence index is a key gauge of sentiment in financial markets. A sharp decline in this indicator could point to growing concerns about the eurozone's economic prospects. Combined with weak industrial output, this could place considerable pressure on the euro and trigger new instability in currency markets.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1422 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1460. I plan to exit the market at 1.1460 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. The expected rise in the euro is within the framework of the current upward trend.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1398 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1422 and 1.1460.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1398 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1362, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Pressure on the pair is likely to return if there are no buyers near daily highs.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1422 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1398 and 1.1362.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.