Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are set for Thursday, but only a few are truly important. The key reports to highlight are the GDP and industrial production data from the United Kingdom; however, these are likely to provoke only a modest market reaction. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims will be published in the United States, but these figures currently carry little weight. Therefore, we do not expect today's macroeconomic backdrop to have a significant impact on the movements of either currency pair.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are no major fundamental events to highlight on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting next week, so its officials are in a quiet period, prohibited from making public comments on monetary policy. Isabel Schnabel and Luis de Guindos are scheduled to speak in the Eurozone, but since the European Central Bank meeting took place last week, it's unlikely that new insights will be provided to the market.

We believe that the market's focus continues to be on the trade war, which shows no signs of resolution. Also relevant are the mass protests in the United States, Trump's "One Fine Law," and the lack of progress in trade negotiations with the 75 countries subject to U.S. tariffs. With no positive news on these fronts, the dollar may continue to decline.

Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs are expected to trade mainly on technical factors. The pound may pause around the 1.3580–1.3592 zone, while the euro could continue climbing above the 1.1513 level. Only news from Trump could affect the market situation today, although the dollar may continue to fall even without fresh headlines.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.