Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 145.08 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to around 144.33.

News that U.S. inflation came in lower than economists expected triggered a decline in the U.S. dollar and strengthened the yen. This reaction in the currency market reflects a shift in investor sentiment, with many believing the Federal Reserve may revise its wait-and-see stance toward a more dovish policy. A weaker dollar eases the debt burden for countries with dollar-denominated debt and makes assets denominated in other currencies more attractive. The yen's strengthening is not surprising under these conditions, especially as the Bank of Japan is preparing to continue raising interest rates. Moreover, geopolitical tensions are also playing an important role.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 144.12 (green line on the chart), with a target at 144.67 (thicker green line). Around 144.67, I intend to exit the long position and open a short position, expecting a 30–35 pip reversal from the level. It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 143.75 level when the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. In this case, expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 144.12 and 144.67.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 143.75 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 143.12, where I will exit the short position and open a long position in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip pullback from that level). Selling pressure may return quickly today.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in the event of two consecutive tests of the 144.12 level when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and result in a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 143.75 and 143.12 is then expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.