In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1537 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The pair rose, but fell short by a few points, forming a false breakout around 1.1537, so I had no trades in the first half of the day. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The German Producer Price Index data had little impact on the currency market, which was expected. In the second half of the day, we await the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the Leading Indicators Index, but again, no strong volatility is expected. In case of a decline in the euro, I will act near the 1.1495 support level. A false breakout at that level would be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for a recovery and a retest of the 1.1537 resistance, which was not tested earlier in the day. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a proper entry point with a target at 1.1579. The ultimate target would be 1.1628, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity around 1.1495, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially driving it down to 1.1449. Only after a false breakout there will I consider buying the euro. I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1408, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers did not show much activity in the first half of the day. Hopefully, something interesting will occur during U.S. trading. If there is another attempt to rise, a false breakout around 1.1537 will be a reason to open short positions targeting a decline toward the 1.1495 support level, where the moving averages—which currently favor the bulls—are located. A breakout and consolidation below this range would be a valid sell signal with a move toward 1.1449. The ultimate target would be 1.1408, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD rises further in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive near 1.1537, buyers may push for a larger rally by the end of the week, with a potential breakout of 1.1579. I will only sell there after a failed breakout. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1628, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 10 showed a decrease in short positions and an increase in long ones. The sharp drop in U.S. inflation failed to support the dollar, despite clear indications that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. What's more important is how Fed Chair Jerome Powell will comment on the inflation situation and what forecasts he will make for rate cuts this fall. This will determine the future direction of the EUR/USD pair, which currently shows no signs of struggling to grow, as confirmed by the report. The COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions increased by 5,968 to 208,754, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 4,293 to 115,729. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 9,921.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages Trading is taking place above the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating continued euro growth.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are analyzed by the author on the H1 hourly chart and may differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.1465 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 50, marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average: Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 30, marked in green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.
• Non-commercial long positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Non-commercial short positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between non-commercial short and long positions.