Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 146.19 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair failed to see any significant upside, so I preferred to exit the market with minimal losses.

In the second half of the day, particular attention should be paid to the release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and U.S. consumer credit data. Even when political factors dominate, data on consumer lending and small business sentiment offer valuable insights into the state of the economy and entrepreneurs' expectations. Strong figures could support further growth in USD/JPY, especially given that U.S.-Japan trade relations have recently deteriorated, and tariffs imposed by Trump are likely to provoke retaliatory measures from Japan.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY around the entry point at 146.50 (green line on the chart) with a target at 147.05 (thicker green line on the chart). At 147.05, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 30–35 points). A continued upward trend suggests the potential for further gains.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 146.07 twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. The target would be a rise to the opposite levels of 146.50 and 147.05.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 146.07 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 145.53, where I will exit short positions and open long ones in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 20–25 points). A return of strong selling pressure is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 146.50 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 146.07 and 145.53 may be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or point to lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or point to lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.