Wednesday Trade Analysis:

EUR/USD – 1H Chart

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade in line with the prevailing trend from the previous week. Market activity was minimal throughout the day, with very low volatility. So far, the market has shown little reaction to potential new tariffs announced by Donald Trump on copper and pharmaceuticals, or to the increased duties for Japan, South Korea, and 13 other countries. However, we view this as a temporary phenomenon. The current strengthening of the U.S. dollar is purely a technical correction—and a weak one, clearly visible even on the hourly timeframe. Naturally, if significant fundamental news emerges in favor of the dollar, the upward movement may continue. But what kind of news would that be, considering Trump has been announcing new import tariffs every day this week? We still believe that the dollar is likely to weaken further, and a breakout above the trendline will provide technical grounds for buying.

On the 5-minute timeframe, not a single trading signal was formed on Wednesday. The price didn't approach any of the marked levels during the day, so beginner traders had no valid reasons to open positions.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is still undergoing a correction, but the five-month upward trend remains intact. The fact that Donald Trump is president of the United States continues to be enough to pressure the dollar. Of course, periodic corrections are normal (as seen now), but the overall fundamental backdrop still makes it difficult to expect sustained dollar strength. This week, the price may continue to decline gradually, but a breakout above the downward trendline would signal a new upward trend.

On Thursday, EUR/USD may continue a slow decline. No important events are scheduled for the penultimate trading day of the week, and there are currently no clear signs that the technical correction is over.

On the 5-minute timeframe, monitor the following levels:1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1292, 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1561–1.1571, 1.1609, 1.1666, 1.1740–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908.On Thursday, Germany will release the second estimate of June inflation, and the U.S. will publish unemployment claims data. Both reports are secondary and are unlikely to significantly affect the euro or the dollar.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by how quickly the signal formed (bounce or breakout). The faster it occurs, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals have been generated around a particular level, all further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During sideways movement, a pair may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trade only between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All positions should be closed manually after this period.
5. On the 1H chart, trade MACD signals only when volatility is high and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are very close (within 5–20 points), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.
7. After the price moves 15 points in the right direction, set Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the charts:

• Support and resistance levels – key areas where buying or selling targets can be placed. Take Profit levels can also be set near them.
• Red lines – channels or trendlines showing the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line are auxiliary tools that can be used for additional signals.
• Major speeches and economic reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact the currency pair's movement. Be cautious during releases or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the previous trend.

Important note for beginners: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying proper money management are essential for long-term success in forex trading.