Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3436 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid buy entry for the pound. As a result, the pair gained over 30 points.

Today's U.S. Leading Index data, regardless of the outcome, is unlikely to strengthen the dollar. The market has already priced in a wide range of possible scenarios, and it would take a truly unexpected result to provoke a significant USD rally. Moreover, the dollar's current weakness is driven more by external factors—such as expectations of changes in ECB monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy—than by internal ones. It's also important to remember that the Leading Index is just one of many indicators reflecting the state of the economy. Investors generally consider it alongside other data, such as inflation, employment, and consumer spending.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point near 1.3486 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise toward 1.3515 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3515, I'll exit the long position and open a short one in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. The pound's upward movement today may continue as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests the 1.3463 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A move toward 1.3486 and 1.3515 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3463 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3434, where I'll exit the short position and immediately open a long one in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point bounce. Sellers are unlikely to show strong momentum today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests the 1.3486 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.3463 and 1.3434 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point; further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking point; further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to monitor overbought and oversold conditions

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.