Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.35 level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar and resulting in a drop of over 60 pips in the pair.

Yesterday, Donald Trump announced a large-scale trade deal with Japan, establishing tariffs at 15%. He stated that Japan would invest 550 billion dollars in the U.S., adding that the U.S. would receive 90% of the profits. This deal could have a positive impact on U.S. relations with other trade partners, especially in Asia. It is crucial to evaluate how this will impact the overall U.S. trade strategy and whether it may lead to new trade wars or a revision of existing agreements. A thorough analysis of all aspects of the deal will help avoid negative consequences and maximize its potential to strengthen the U.S. economy. In any case, the yen responded with another round of gains against the U.S. dollar, which has been facing serious pressure in recent days.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 147.20 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 147.82 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.82, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip pullback. It is best to buy the pair on corrections and significant USD/JPY pullbacks.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 146.76 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward 147.20 and 147.82 can then be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a break below 146.76 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 146.25 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20–25 pip rebound. Downward pressure on the pair could return at any moment today.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.20 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A drop toward 146.76 and 146.25 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.