Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.64 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already declined significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Opening short positions on the pair today requires increased caution, as it remains unclear how market participants will react to the trade deals reached last week between the U.S., Japan, and the EU. It is evident that markets require more information about the terms of these agreements to determine the correct market direction. In any case, the fact that the United States has reached several trade agreements with key partners suggests a gradual resolution of the trade conflicts initiated by the Trump administration. However, it is still too early to draw final conclusions due to several important factors. It's essential to understand that the signing of trade deals does not always guarantee an immediate improvement in economic conditions. These agreements must be genuinely mutually beneficial and contribute to expanding trade and attracting investment. Otherwise, if the deals are excessively restrictive or unfair, they could lead to undesirable consequences and slow economic development. In any case, the global economy may suffer as a result of all this, potentially impacting investor and trader sentiment in the short term, making it more difficult to forecast further market dynamics. All this suggests that the U.S. dollar has a strong likelihood of continuing to strengthen.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 147.92 entry point (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 148.61 (represented by the thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.61, I intend to exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction). It is best to return to buying the pair on pullbacks and deeper corrections in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.62 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 147.92 and 148.61 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 147.62 level (red line on the chart), which should trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 147.03, where I plan to exit sell positions and open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction). Selling pressure on the pair may return at any time today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 147.92 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and potentially lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite level of 147.03 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.