While the euro attempts to determine its next direction, media reports suggest that the European Union expects U.S. President Donald Trump to announce measures this week that would formally lock in lower tariffs on EU automobiles and grant exemptions on certain industrial goods such as aircraft parts. This would help the European economy manage the pressure expected to build soon after the introduction of 15% trade tariffs, offering short-term support for the euro.

The proposed softer measures aimed at easing the trade deal could bring relief to the European economy, which has come under pressure in recent months due to trade tensions and slowing global growth. A reduction or removal of tariffs on automobiles—a key EU export—could potentially stimulate industrial production and boost exports, which would positively impact the eurozone's overall economic performance. Meanwhile, exemptions for industrial goods, particularly aircraft parts, may support the European aerospace industry, which is one of the leading global players. This could strengthen the international position of European companies and create new opportunities for growth and innovation.

However, it's important to note that these expectations are based solely on rumors and speculation. The final decision on tariffs and exemptions remains with the U.S., and much will depend on the course of further negotiations and the broader political context.

Both sides are also expected to issue a joint statement outlining the political commitments agreed upon by Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month. Under the terms negotiated with Washington, the 27-member EU bloc is subject to a 15% U.S. tariff on most of its exports. This rate would also apply to automobiles—lower than the current 25%—as well as to any future sector-specific measures targeting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

An executive order issued by the White House last week confirmed that this general tariff would apply as a ceiling to the EU, meaning different areas could face different trade duties.

A European Commission spokesperson stated Monday that, in light of the agreement's implementation, the EU has offered to suspend for six months a package of countermeasures it had prepared in case the sides failed to reach a deal.

However, the recent U.S. decree addressed only so-called reciprocal tariffs and did not include any exemptions or guidance on how Trump's sector-specific measures would apply to trading partners. In addition to the general tariff, the U.S. president introduced 25% duties on cars and auto parts and doubled the rate on steel and aluminum. He also threatened to impose tariffs soon on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors. Many officials expect that only a limited number of goods—such as certain generics and aircraft—will be granted a rate below the base 15% level.

In any case, the release of trade deal details could trigger a spike in volatility on the currency market.

As for the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1600 level. Only then will it be possible to target a test of 1.1640. From there, a move toward 1.1665 may follow, though doing so without the support of large players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1690 high. If the instrument declines, significant activity from major buyers is expected only around 1.1555. If no support emerges there, it would be reasonable to wait for a retest of the 1.1518 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1479.

As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3305. Only then can they aim for 1.3340, which will be difficult to surpass. The furthest upward target is the 1.3380 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to regain control around 1.3255. A successful breakout below this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3217 low, with potential to reach 1.3180.