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15.08.2025 03:50 AM
On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower, with the U.S. Producer Price Index being the main driver. Initially, we assumed that this indicator was unlikely to provoke a market reaction, but this time it surprised with an unexpected figure that deviated sharply from forecasts. The rise in producer inflation reflects the real impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Many imported raw materials, metals, and components have become more expensive, and as a result, U.S. producer prices have also started to rise. Do you think final product prices will increase as well?
Thus, inflation in the U.S. will still accelerate, putting the Federal Reserve in an even more uncomfortable position. Now, inflation is rising while the labor market is weakening — two developments that require entirely different approaches to monetary policy. We believe the Fed will cut the rate by 0.25% in September, but further decisions will depend on the next reports. We expect the dollar to strengthen, but probably not significantly. Tonight, Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska, and the outcome of these talks will likely influence the pair's dynamics, although probably only starting Monday.
On the 5-minute chart, no trading signals formed on Thursday. The price failed to reach the 1.3615 level (thanks to the PPI), and it only approached the 1.3509 level by the end of the day.
COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. Right now, they have converged again, indicating an approximately equal number of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to fall due to Trump's policies, so in principle, the demand of market makers for the pound is not particularly important at this point. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and demand for the dollar will keep falling. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 22,100 BUY contracts and 900 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 21,200 contracts over the reporting week.
In 2025, the pound experienced a sharp rise, primarily due to Trump's policies. Once this factor is removed, the dollar may resume growth, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position in the pound is rising or falling — in the dollar, it is falling in any case, and usually at a faster pace.
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to develop an upward trend, while on the daily chart, it rebounded from the important and strong Senkou Span B line. From our perspective, the fundamental background remains unfavorable for the U.S. currency, so in the long term, we expect the continuation of the "2025 trend." The increase in producer inflation slightly brightened the dollar's gloomy outlook, but one report is unlikely to fuel the bears for long.
For August 15, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3509, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, and 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3294) and Kijun-sen (1.3494) lines can also serve as sources of signals. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be moved to break-even if the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the United Kingdom, while the U.S. will release industrial production, retail sales, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment reports. We believe the situation may repeat — if one or more reports deviate significantly from forecasts, a market reaction is possible.
We believe the pair could resume growth on Friday. For this, a bounce from the 1.3509 level, the Kijun-sen line, or the trendline is needed. The target for long positions is the 1.3615 level. To consider short positions, the price must consolidate below the trendline.
