Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of 1.1675 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The euro's recovery against the U.S. dollar occurred as forecast, due to the absence of key macroeconomic data from the eurozone. Investors appear to be focusing on the potential stance of the ECB—particularly after recent comments from ECB officials on the need to stimulate regional economic growth. The euro is also supported by the weakening of the U.S. currency, which is under pressure from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as September this year.

Today, financial markets will be influenced by a flow of U.S. economic reports. Retail sales data will be of particular importance, as it is a key indicator of consumer spending, which plays a significant role in the U.S. economy. The retail sales report is expected to help assess the strength of consumer demand. An increase in sales may indicate persistent inflation and, consequently, encourage the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates. Conversely, a slowdown in retail sales growth may indicate economic weakness and the need to revise monetary tightening plans.

Equally important will be industrial production figures, which will provide a more complete picture of the state of manufacturing nationwide. Growth in production may support economic expansion, while a decline could heighten concerns about a recession. The day's data releases will conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which reflects U.S. citizens' confidence in the economy. A high level of confidence may encourage greater consumer spending, while low confidence may lead to reduced spending.

A comprehensive analysis of the published data will help traders form a clearer picture of the U.S. economy and adjust their trading positions accordingly.

For intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Buy the euro today when the price reaches the level of 1.1698 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.1731. At 1.1731, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth today would be possible if weak U.S. statistics support the ongoing uptrend. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1675 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise to 1.1698 and 1.1731 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1675 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1639, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move in the reverse direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return today if the U.S. statistics are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1698 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A drop to 1.1675 and 1.1639 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price for placing Take Profit orders or taking profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price for placing Take Profit orders or taking profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take into account overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing intraday trading strategy.