Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test at 147.10 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a modest rise of 15 points.

The further trajectory of USD/JPY will largely depend on economic factors affecting the U.S. economy. In the second half of the day, priority will be given to consumer price index data and the trade balance. These indicators are crucial for assessing consumer activity and external trade, directly influencing America's economic outlook. A decline in U.S. inflation could cause the dollar to weaken significantly, dragging USD/JPY lower. Particular attention will also be paid to the dynamics of U.S. consumer spending, as it reflects public confidence and willingness to spend. Rising expenditures typically indicate optimism and confidence in the future, which supports economic growth and pushes inflation higher.

If the data diverge strongly from expectations, USD/JPY may show a sharp and directional move.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 147.34 (green line on the chart) with a target of 148.11 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.11, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point reversal from the level). Growth in the pair will only be likely if the data are strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.11 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 147.34 and 148.11 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 147.11 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.54, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point reversal from the level). Downward pressure will return if the data are very weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 147.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.11 and 146.54 can then be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding on market entries. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is, from the outset, a losing strategy for intraday traders.