On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued its upward move on Monday toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3586, but turned in favor of the dollar overnight on Tuesday and began a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. No new signals were formed over the past day.

The wave setup remains bearish, which may sound strange after the recent strong growth. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background played a major role in shaping the waves we have seen in recent weeks. In my view, the news flow has already turned the pair toward the bulls, so the trend may soon become bullish again.

On Monday, there was no significant news, which explains the low activity among traders. For two weeks in a row, traders have seen no reason for strong moves, as the information background has often been absent or unconvincing. Today, traders will have their first real chance to break out of this stagnation. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI is an important report. In recent months, this indicator has steadily declined and could also show weakness for August. However, regardless of the report's outcome, the pound retains good growth prospects. The hourly chart shows a flat market, but on the 4-hour chart the price has twice rebounded from the support zone at 1.3378–1.3435. I consider these two signals the most important at the moment. This week, the news background should have a strong impact on trader sentiment, but for now there is neither economic news nor updates from Donald Trump.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a second reversal in favor of the pound after the second rebound from the 1.3378–1.3435 support zone. Thus, growth may continue toward the next retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3795. No divergences are emerging on any indicator today. A close below the 1.3378–1.3435 zone would work in favor of the dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3118.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category became more bearish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 5,302, while the number of shorts rose by 866. The gap between longs and shorts now stands at 76,000 versus 107,000. However, as we can see, the pound tends to rise while traders lean toward buying.

In my view, the pound still has downward potential. The news background for the dollar in the first six months of the year was extremely negative, but it is gradually improving. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy in the second quarter is set to recover thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year have already created serious pressure on the dollar. Therefore, I do not yet see grounds for a sustained "dollar trend."

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK: U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).

On September 2, the economic calendar contains just one notable release. The news background will influence market sentiment on Tuesday in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips: Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from 1.3586 or on a close below 1.3482 on the hourly chart. However, the price is currently far from both levels. Buying was possible on Friday after a close above 1.3482 with a target at 1.3586. These trades can be kept open today.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.