Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1735 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

In the first half of the day, the euro received some support from positive data on German industrial production growth. However, unlike the reaction to Friday's U.S. labor market data, there was no significant continuation of the upward move. In the second half of the day, the economic calendar does not contain events likely to cause major market swings. While the release of U.S. consumer credit data is of some interest, it is unlikely to be a decisive factor for the euro's course. Such data usually has less impact than, for example, inflation or employment reports.

An increase in this indicator could point to economic strengthening and, consequently, support for the dollar. However, more significant factors are needed for a notable dollar rally. In the absence of strong drivers, EUR/USD is likely to continue consolidating within the current price range, subject only to minor fluctuations caused by speculative trades. Therefore, market participants should remain cautious and take multiple factors into account when making decisions.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy the euro around 1.1735 (green line on the chart) with the target at 1.1769. At 1.1769, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. A strong euro rally today seems unlikely.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1716 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1735 and 1.1769.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1716 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1684, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points back from the level). Selling pressure may return at any time today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1735 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1716 and 1.1684.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – indicative price for setting Take Profit or taking profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – indicative price for setting Take Profit or taking profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.