Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but some of them are truly important. Most notably, the US reports on durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. The third estimate is the final one, and the first and second releases are often revised—thus, the last release carries the most weight. The durable goods report is also significant, as it reflects changes in US consumer demand for major, high-value goods. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence index will be published, but this is far from the most critical release.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, Federal Reserve speeches by Bowman, Barr, and Daly are worth mentioning. However, at this point, the range of views on monetary policy within the FOMC is entirely clear. There are three pronounced "doves": Christopher Waller, Steve Miran, and Michelle Bowman. The rest of the Fed members maintain a restrained position that does not imply rapid or aggressive rate cuts. As a whole, then, the FOMC adheres to a view of gradual easing, contingent upon macroeconomic data. Fresh comments from Mary Daly or Michelle Bowman are unlikely to alter the situation.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both major currency pairs may resume their decline. The euro can be sold if it consolidates below the 1.1737–1.1745 area, with a target of 1.1666. The pound can be sold on a bounce from the 1.3466–1.3475 area, aiming for 1.3421. However, we would not ignore buy signals either, since the fundamental and macro backdrop is still not in favor of the dollar.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.