See also
25.09.2025 08:30 AMThe test of the 1.1755 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below zero, which limited the pair's further downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and missed the entire downward move. Long positions on the rebound from 1.1731 yielded about 10 pips in profit.
The release of strong new home sales data in the US triggered a rise in the dollar and a decline in the euro. The optimistic figures prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.
Today, we'll see the preliminary German GfK Consumer Sentiment Index, private sector lending figures in the eurozone, and M3 money supply growth. The German GfK Confidence Index serves as a key barometer for consumer sentiment and expenditures, which in turn are critical drivers of economic growth. The volume of private sector lending in the eurozone indicates how available credit is for businesses and households. Growth in lending can signal rising economic activity and make the region more attractive to investors. The dynamics of the M3 money supply, which encompasses cash in circulation, deposits, and other liquid assets, can offer insights into the current level of inflation and the ECB's monetary policy stance. In these turbulent economic times, such data will be especially valuable for traders.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1754 area (indicated by the green line on the chart), with an upside target of 1.1789. At 1.1789, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro on a reversal, targeting a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Only consider betting on euro growth after strong economic data is released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is just starting to rise from that level.
Scenario 2: I'll also look to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1735 price while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will cap the downside potential and send the market into a reversal to the upside. Look for the pair to move towards 1.1754 and 1.1789.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1735 (indicated by the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1708, where I'll exit and immediately buy for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to return today if the data disappoints. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to decline from that level.
Scenario 2: I'll also look to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1754 price with the MACD in overbought territory. This will cap the upside and send the market into a reversal to the downside. Expect a move towards 1.1735 and 1.1708.
Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.
Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
