Trade review and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen

The levels I marked were not tested in the first half of the day.

Today, in addition to data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in household spending, and household income in the U.S., attention should also be paid to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Strong figures will lead to another strengthening of the dollar against the Japanese yen. The consumer sentiment index, as a barometer of Americans' confidence, plays a key role in shaping market forecasts. Positive readings, reflecting optimism about the future, stimulate consumer spending and thereby support economic growth. Inflation expectations, in turn, shape perceptions of future price changes. Rising expectations may encourage consumers to accelerate purchases, fearing further price increases, which fuels inflation and could force the Federal Reserve into a more cautious stance, leading to another wave of U.S. dollar growth against the yen.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 149.97 (green line on the chart) with a target at 150.42 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.42, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from that level). A rise in the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 149.56, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 149.97 and 150.42.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 149.56 (red line on the chart), which will quickly push the pair lower. The key target for sellers will be 149.18, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move back from that level). Pressure on the pair may return if news of slowing U.S. inflation emerges. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 149.97, at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can then be expected toward the opposite levels of 149.56 and 149.18.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit orders or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding on market entry. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are from the outset a losing strategy for intraday traders.