See also
06.11.2025 08:41 AMThe test of the price level at 153.88 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, which limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy dollars and missed a slight upward movement.
The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after the ADP report on the U.S. labor market came in above economists' expectations. This unexpected spike in optimism regarding the U.S. economy triggered an immediate response in the currency market, leading to a sharp increase in demand for the dollar and, consequently, a drop in the yen, which is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency. The sensitivity to ADP data stems from the current macroeconomic environment. Investors are closely monitoring any labor market signals that could indicate how the Federal Reserve will act. Strong employment data, such as the ADP report, reinforces expectations that the Fed will return to a wait-and-see stance to curb inflation, making the dollar more attractive to investors.
On the other hand, while the Bank of Japan promises to raise rates, it is still maintaining a pause on this issue, further widening the gap between asset yields in the U.S. and Japan. This difference in interest rates is a key factor determining capital movement between the two countries, and higher rates in the U.S. put pressure on the yen.
For today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 154.07 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 154.55 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 154.55, I will exit my long positions and open a short in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.81 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected toward the opposite levels of 154.07 and 154.55.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breach of the 153.81 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 153.46 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.07 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected toward the opposite levels of 153.81 and 153.46.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
