On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair made another upward move toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594, then rebounded from that level. Thus, the downward movement may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1517. Consolidation of the pair's rate above 1.1594 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the previous wave's peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend currently remains bearish. Bullish traders are not taking advantage of the opportunities to advance, while bears are often attacking purely on enthusiasm, without information support. To declare the bearish trend complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Tuesday, the information background was very weak. The only news came from the European Union, and it was not particularly significant for traders. The German economic sentiment index fell from 39.3 to 38.5, while the same index for the EU as a whole rose from 22.7 to 25.0. ECB President Christine Lagarde also gave a speech, stating that inflation in the EU is currently at a level satisfactory to the regulator. She added that, in the long term, the consumer price index continues to move toward the target of 2%. However, according to Lagarde, the world may face renewed price increases in the future due to Donald Trump's trade policies. For now, the impact of Trump's tariffs has not been fully felt, as many companies are holding back from raising prices, instead cutting their own margins. This will not last forever — eventually, companies will begin increasing prices, which could trigger a new wave of inflation growth.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator and consolidating above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Closing below 1.1538 would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a resumption of decline toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.1448. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been released for more than a month. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group remains bullish—thanks to Donald Trump—and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, while short positions total 138,000, roughly a two-to-one ratio.

Also note the number of green cells in the upper table — they reflect a strong increase in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For 33 consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policy remains the most significant factor for traders, as it may cause numerous long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several key trade agreements, many major economic indicators continue to show decline.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

Eurozone – Germany Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).

For November 12, the economic calendar contains only one unremarkable entry. The information background will have no influence on market sentiment on Wednesday.

Forecast for EUR/USD and Trading Recommendations

At this time, I do not recommend considering sell positions, as I believe the bears have already overperformed their plan by a wide margin. Buy positions could have been considered upon consolidation above 1.1517, targeting 1.1594 — this target has already been met. New buying opportunities will arise if the pair closes above 1.1594, with targets at 1.1645–1.1656.

The Fibonacci level grids are constructed between 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.