Analysts have spotted a looming turmoil in the US petroleum market. Despite optimistic assurances from US President Donald Trump, a collapse appears imminent. According to projections by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil production in America is set to decline for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic during the second quarter of 2025. Experts warn that output is expected to drop from a record 13.5 million to 13.3 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2026.

This forecast contradicts the American president’s plans to ramp up domestic production considerably. Earlier, the White House leader vowed to unleash the full potential of oil companies under the slogan “Drill, baby, drill.” However, there is a contradiction: while making this pledge, Trump pushed for lower global commodity prices at the same time.

According to oilfield services company Baker Hughes, the number of active drilling rigs in the US last week was 50 units fewer than a year earlier, the lowest figure since October 2021. "This inevitably signals a drop in production in the near future," the company added.

The decline in drilling activity in the US has been a response to the sharp drop in oil prices. The EIA expects this trend to continue in the coming months. The agency projects that the price of WTI, the North American benchmark, will fall to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025 from the current $64. Moreover, it could decline further to $59 per barrel next year.

Earlier this summer, the price of WTI slipped below $65, the breakeven level for shale production. The Financial Times notes that the White House is unlikely to reverse the current situation, as it lacks a clear plan and "if it creates anything at all, it’s just more chaos."