The world is rapidly re-arming. Global defense spending is on the rise. In this context, demand for critical metals is surging. By 2035, NATO countries plan to allocate 5% of GDP to defense, with 3.5% earmarked for core production and 1.5% for infrastructure and metals used in defense systems.

Spending focused on equipment and infrastructure is significantly more metal-intensive than personnel costs. Against this backdrop, demand for key materials such as aluminum and copper is growing, with consumption levels approaching historical peaks. By 2030, global defense-sector demand is projected to reach 1.6 million metric tons of aluminum and 553,000 metric tons of copper.

This is an impressive increase! For comparison, global supply of aluminum and copper in the current year is estimated at 74 million tons and 27 million tons, respectively. In 2024, the US defense industry accounted for 9.6% of national copper demand and 7.1% of aluminum consumption. These figures are expected to grow significantly in the near future.

Defense platforms require a consistently high volume of metals. For example, a battle tank can contain up to 45,000 kg of steel, 1,000 kg of aluminum, and 500 kg of copper. A fighter jet includes about 6,500 kg of aluminum and nearly 400 kg of copper. Military ships, especially destroyers and aircraft carriers, use between 5,000 and 100,000 tons of steel, along with considerable amounts of copper and aluminum.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are also critical to defense. For instance, an F-35 fighter jet uses more than 900 pounds of REEs. Some submarines require over 9,000 pounds.

These materials are essential for missile guidance systems, radars, propulsion units, and electronic warfare capabilities. Currently, China accounts for 69% of global REE production and 99% of heavy REE processing. Recent Chinese export restrictions on REEs, gallium, and germanium have raised serious concerns about Western dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The United States has responded with new policy measures to stimulate domestic mining and processing of REEs. The White House has explicitly backed MP Materials, the only US-based rare earth producer.

In Europe, EU leaders have launched the SAFE Fund, totaling €150 billion, aimed at financing critical defense infrastructure and technologies. Both the US and Europe are striving to secure their supply chains and reduce exposure to geopolitical risks.

Preliminary estimates suggest that global military budgets could approach $3 trillion by 2030, leading to buoyant demand from the defense sector. The key question is whether current supply chains can meet these growing demands and strategic imperatives. Time will tell whether nations are truly prepared, experts conclude.