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04.07.2025 12:59 PM
Stock market on July 4: S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs

US stock indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.83%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 1.02%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.77%.

During today's Asian trading, index futures declined as President Donald Trump once again escalated trade tensions ahead of the deadline for introducing higher tariffs next week. Another round of heightened tensions before the looming deadline to implement increased customs duties is creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and nervousness in financial markets. Investors are exercising increased caution, fearing negative consequences for the global economy that could arise from further escalation of the trade war. The decline in futures, which had just set fresh record highs yesterday, signals traders' desire to minimize risk and lock in profits, exerting pressure on equity markets.

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Asian indices fell by 0.3%, with South Korean stocks leading the losses, down 1.6%. Trump stated that his administration could begin sending letters to trading partners as early as today, setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of the July 9 negotiation deadline. Equity futures for the US and Europe slipped by 0.3%. Gold rose by 0.5%, while the dollar declined by 0.2%.

Investors remain on the sidelines, awaiting the outcome of various trade negotiations amid the current pause in Trump's April tariffs, which he postponed for 90 days to allow time for talks.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high due to an unexpected surge in employment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created 147,000 jobs last month, exceeding forecasts, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Against this backdrop, Treasury bonds declined and the dollar strengthened, indicating traders see less pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Swap traders saw almost no chance of a rate cut in July, compared with about a 25% probability before the data. The likelihood of easing in September fell to around 70%.

In the meantime, Trump has delivered a radical shift in US domestic policy as the House of Representatives approved a $3.4 trillion fiscal package that cuts taxes and reduces spending on social welfare programs. The increase of the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion included in the package eliminates the risk of payment default, which the Treasury had projected could occur as early as mid-August without any action from Congress. The president said that he plans to sign the bill on Friday during a ceremony at 4:00 p.m. at the White House.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government intends to cancel part of the two-day summit with European Union leaders scheduled for the end of this month, which is another sign of mounting tension between Brussels and Beijing.

As for commodities, oil prices stabilized ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which is expected to result in another significant increase in production, threatening to boost the projected surplus by year-end.

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Regarding the technical analysis for the S&P 500, the main objective for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,267. This would help establish upward momentum and open the way for a push toward the new level of $6,276. An equally important task for bulls will be to maintain control of the $6,285 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward move amid waning risk appetite, buyers will be expected to step in around the $6,257 area. A break below this zone would quickly push the instrument back to $6,245 and open the door toward $6,234.

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