On Friday, the markets focused on the key event of recent months—the summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska. Although the meeting did not produce visible results, it was a breakthrough and could have a significant impact on the global order as well as on the conflict between the West and Ukraine.

Since the meeting took place on Friday, effectively after the markets had closed, participants could not fully react to it. Only the Russian stock market showed a clear, classic profit-taking move on Saturday during over-the-counter trading, with an overall decline in stock values of around 3%. In this case, the market participants—professional traders who had access to OTC trades—reacted in the classic way, selling after preliminary buying, following the rule "buy the rumor, sell the fact." However, despite this, today the OTC market is already showing a positive rebound, likely returning stock prices to pre-sale levels. This positive trend may well continue once exchange trading opens.

As for the outcome of the summit, it revealed maximum personal goodwill from the American president toward his Russian counterpart, and vice versa. While no major breakthrough agreements were announced, this was not to be expected, especially given the rupture in relations under Joe Biden toward Putin and Russia a few years ago. The fact that no concrete results were made public may reflect a desire by both sides to withhold them for now, out of concern that opponents of U.S.–Russia rapprochement could try to derail progress. This meeting appeared to establish points of contact between the countries and outline a path for resolving accumulated disputes and issues in the near future. This is a major success for both presidents personally, and it will certainly be welcomed by financial markets, since the risk of nuclear conflict, if not completely eliminated, has been pushed further into the distance.

The oil market has already reacted to the news with a morning price decline, though at the time of writing, it was attempting to recover. The initial negative reaction was linked to the fact that the Alaska meeting, marking the start of renewed U.S.–Russia contact, could lead not only to a halt in new U.S. sanctions against Moscow but also to the start of their rollback, at least partially. Even partial sanctions relief is seen as a significant success, opening the way for Russia to trade its energy resources more actively.

Overall, observing these developments, one can say that the U.S.–Russia rapprochement will positively affect the global financial system and markets as a whole.

What can we expect today in the markets?

I believe participants will be pricing in the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington. This will be most evident in Russian trading. However, other global markets may also show support, and this is already happening in India and China, where local stock indices are rising steadily.

The coming week will also be rich in economic data from the EU and the UK—particularly consumer inflation reports. In addition, speeches from Federal Reserve members, including Chair Jerome Powell, are expected, with markets watching closely for views on the prospects of a September rate cut. The week will also bring the release of the minutes from the latest Fed monetary policy meeting, U.S. service and manufacturing PMI data, and a monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where the key rate is expected to be cut by 0.25% to 3.00% from 3.25%.

Assessing the overall market picture, I believe it will remain moderately positive.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD

The pair is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1715. A breakout above this level, driven by increased demand for risk assets, may lead the pair to rise first to 1.1750 and then to 1.1790. A suitable entry point for buying may be around 1.1723.

AUD/USD

The pair is also consolidating in a sideways channel, awaiting the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes. At the same time, it is supported by the rally in China's stock market and reduced global tensions after the Trump–Putin summit. Overall positive sentiment in the markets could lift the pair toward 0.6620 once it breaks above 0.6535. A suitable entry point for buying may be around 0.6541.