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17.06.2025 12:00 PMOn Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, consolidated above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.1574, but was unable to continue rising afterward. A close below the 1.1574 level opens the door to a potential decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1454. A new consolidation above the Fibonacci level of 1.1574 will support the euro and the continuation of growth toward the 1.1645 level.
The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last completed upward wave easily broke the previous high. Thus, the trend currently remains bullish. The latest news about increased tariffs on steel and aluminum caused the bears to retreat again, and the lack of real progress in U.S.–China negotiations keeps bears from initiating new attacks. The trend will only be considered bearish if the pair firmly consolidates below the 1.1490 level.
There was no economic news on Monday, yet the bulls continued to push upward amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. As of Tuesday morning, there is no reason to expect an end to the conflict any time soon. First, this conflict has persisted for years. Second, Iran remains steadfast in retaining its status as a nuclear power. Tehran views nuclear weapons as a means of defense, while the U.S. and Israel see them as a potential offensive threat. As a result, the sides are far from signing a lasting agreement to bring peace to the region. For the dollar, an escalation in the Middle East is once again bad news. The dollar has lost its status as a safe haven, so the market now prefers truly safe currencies — and there are alternatives. Therefore, bulls are unlikely to push forward solely due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, but bears also seem unable to launch a full-scale offensive.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1495 and rebounded from it. This suggests that the euro may continue rising toward the next level at 1.1680. The upward channel clearly indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. A consolidation below the 1.1495 level would signal a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the lower boundary of the channel. No developing divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 5,968 long positions and closed 4,293 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, largely due to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 208,000, while short positions total 115,000 — and the gap continues to widen (with rare exceptions). This indicates sustained demand for the euro and weak demand for the dollar. The situation remains unchanged.
For 19 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their longs. Although the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is already quite significant, Donald Trump's policies are a more influential factor for traders. His actions risk triggering a recession in the U.S. economy and other long-term structural problems.
The June 17 calendar contains four entries, none of which are considered major. Therefore, the impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be minimal.
Sales were possible upon a close below the 1.1574 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1454. These trades can remain open. I would recommend buying in the case of a rebound from the 1.1454 level with a target of 1.1574, or upon a close above 1.1574, targeting 1.1645.
