The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains generally clear. We observed a corrective downward formation that completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a strong upward movement began, which can be viewed as the start of an impulsive bullish trend. The second wave of this structure was very small and unconvincing, which supports the interpretation of the current segment as an impulsive one. If this is correct, then the trend is still missing a decisive wave 5, the peak of which should exceed that of wave 3. Based on this, I expect one more final upward impulse. A successful breakout above the 100.0% Fibonacci level would indicate a continuation of the bullish movement, which under certain conditions could take on a more extended form.

The news background supports Bitcoin — though inconsistently. I'd say market participants tend to interpret any news in favor of the leading cryptocurrency, or simply ignore the news altogether and just keep buying. What we are seeing is a bullish trend based on emotions, demand, and belief in a sky-high future value of Bitcoin. Moreover, the surge from $75,000 to $111,000 bears all the hallmarks of a "pump." And when the pump ends, a drop usually follows.

In recent weeks, BTC/USD has been actively forming a downward corrective wave structure. We are currently observing a classic three-wave pattern, which could be part of the internal structure of wave 4. I would like to point out that in recent months, Bitcoin has been rising sharply and quickly, while its corrections have been long and slow. This is one of the key characteristics of an impulsive uptrend. Wave 4 could evolve into a more complex structure, such as a five-wave a-b-c-d-e formation. However, for now, I assume the market has entered the stage of constructing wave 5.

This wave could be of any size. It might only slightly exceed the peak of wave 3 or form a clearly defined five-wave structure. In my view, the target around $119,600 — corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension — looks logical and convincing.

I believe a more accurate target will become clear in the next few days. Wave 5 will either take the form of a clear five-wave pattern or a single wave. As the price approaches $111,000 per coin, we will be able to better assess the extent of this wave.

The end of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East also played a role. Market participants' willingness to take on risk has increased again, which inevitably impacts Bitcoin — the riskiest of all assets. However, how long the market can run on this "fuel" remains unclear. In my opinion, further escalations of the conflict are possible, but the U.S. is unlikely to participate in them again.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the formation of a bullish wave structure continues, though it has a very unusual nature and foundation. The recent sharp rise in Bitcoin wasn't driven by news — and historically, buyer strength tends to run out around the $111,000 level. Ignoring wave analysis for a moment, one could argue that the market is preparing for a new downward trend segment. The corrective wave sequence within wave 4 may still evolve into a five-wave structure, but wave 5 is needed regardless — which means Bitcoin is likely to revisit the $111,000 level.

On the higher wave scale, the upward trend is still in progress, though its internal wave structure remains ambiguous due to the near-complete absence of corrective waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are hard to trade and often prone to change.
2. If you're unsure about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.