Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Perhaps the most important is the final Q1 GDP report in the United Kingdom. Let us recall that the British economy showed relatively confident growth of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, based on the first two estimates. Even if the final figure is slightly higher or lower, the positive trend is clear. This represents another bullish factor for the British pound.

In the Eurozone, attention may be focused solely on retail sales and inflation data from Germany. However, these are far from the most critical reports, and inflation in the Eurozone no longer keeps anyone awake at night. The European Central Bank continues to ease its monetary policy, and overall inflation remains close to the target level.

In the U.S., not even secondary reports are scheduled.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

As for fundamental events, Monday features a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, but she spoke twice last week without addressing monetary policy at all. Currently, there are no questions regarding the ECB's monetary policy. The central bank has made it clear that the easing cycle is nearing completion, and the key rate may be cut once or twice more, with intervals, if economic conditions demand it.

The trade war remains the top concern for markets, with no signs of resolution or de-escalation in sight. Tensions could rise significantly in the near future, as Donald Trump has not signed a single trade deal (except with the UK). On Friday, media outlets reported a trade truce with China, but details are scarce, and truces can vary in nature.

Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may continue to rise. The war in the Middle East is over, the Global Trade War continues, and Trump keeps making decisions that do not inspire confidence in the future of the U.S. economy. In the near term, it will become clear how many countries Trump can strike trade deals with. A series of significant events is anticipated in the coming weeks, and the U.S. dollar has an excellent chance of continuing to fall.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.