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02.07.2025 08:01 AMThe euro and the pound continue to show gains despite the pressure on risk assets that emerged in the second half of the day yesterday.
Yesterday's positive ISM Manufacturing Index data provided support to the U.S. dollar, as did statements from the Federal Reserve Chair indicating that, due to Donald Trump's trade policy, there are currently no plans to lower interest rates.
In the near term, the key driver for markets will remain the dynamics of the U.S. dollar and the rhetoric of the Fed. Traders will closely monitor new macroeconomic data and comments from Fed officials to assess the prospects for monetary policy. Another important factor will be the development of trade negotiations between the U.S. and its key partners, including the EU, as any deterioration in relations could have a negative impact on the global economy and financial markets.
Today, only the eurozone unemployment figures and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are expected in the first half of the day. While these events may not have a strong potential to trigger sharp market moves, they still deserve close attention from traders. The unemployment data will serve as an important indicator of the eurozone economy's condition, signaling either resilience or potential challenges. A drop in the unemployment rate could boost confidence in the region's economic growth prospects and support the euro. However, a rise in unemployment may cause concern and put pressure on the single currency.
Christine Lagarde's speech, in turn, will allow the market to receive fresh commentary on the ECB's current monetary policy and future actions—if, of course, such topics are addressed during the speech. It is worth noting that these types of comments are usually made after ECB meetings, and today Lagarde will be speaking at a forum. For instance, yesterday she spoke extensively about the strength of the euro and the concerns it raises.
As for the pound, there is nothing particularly noteworthy scheduled today, so attention will shift to speeches by British politicians. Special attention should be given to a speech by Martin Taylor, a member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to rely on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly above or below forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be more effective.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1825 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1855 and 1.1875
Selling on a breakout below 1.1785 may lead to a drop in the euro toward 1.1745 and 1.1690
Buying on a breakout above 1.3750 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3765 and 1.3785
Selling on a breakout below 1.3730 may lead to a drop in the pound toward 1.3710 and 1.3675
Buying on a breakout above 143.65 may lead to a rise in the dollar toward 144.10 and 144.50
Selling on a breakout below 143.40 may lead to a decline in the dollar toward 143.25 and 142.79
I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1819 followed by a return below this level
I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1790 followed by a return to this level
I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3758 followed by a return below this level
I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3725 followed by a return to this level
I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.6593 followed by a return below this level
I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.6565 followed by a return to this level
I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3658 followed by a return below this level
I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3633 followed by a return to this level
