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15.08.2025 12:31 PMOn the hourly chart, GBP/USD on Thursday rebounded from the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3586, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and saw a modest decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. Today, the decline may continue. A consolidation above 1.3586 (and above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620) or a rebound from 1.3482 would work in favor of the pound and a resumption of the bullish trend.
The wave structure remains bearish, which may seem unusual after a two-week rise. The last completed upward wave broke the highs of the two previous waves, but the most recent downward wave broke all previous lows. News flow played a major role in shaping the wave pattern seen in recent weeks. In my view, the news background has already turned the pair toward the bulls, so the trend may soon become bullish again. The situation is mixed and will largely depend on news developments.
Thursday's news flow supported the bulls, as the UK economy grew more strongly in the second quarter than traders had expected. The industrial production report also exceeded forecasts. However, after attacking for two straight weeks and approaching the strong resistance zone at 1.3586–1.3620, bulls decided to take a short pause. Even with this pullback, bears have not managed to gain much. They were helped yesterday by the U.S. Producer Price Index, which unexpectedly posted a very high reading, raising concerns about higher inflation in the coming months. Still, I do not see signs that bears are ready for an offensive. Most likely, the dollar's story will again end with only a minor corrective pullback.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the pound after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator and closing above the resistance zone of 1.3378–1.3435. As a result, the upward move may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.3795. The CCI indicator has formed a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential minor decline, which aligns with key resistance on the hourly chart.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became more bearish in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 22,164, while short positions decreased by 889. However, the sharp drop in interest in the pound according to the COT report does not reflect the actual market situation, as interest in the dollar is also declining. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at about 65,000 versus 98,000. Yet, the pound continues to rise.
In my view, the pound still faces potential for a decline. The news background in the first half of the year was extremely unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, but it is gradually turning positive. Trade tensions are easing, key agreements are being signed, and the U.S. economy should recover in the second quarter thanks to tariffs and various types of investment. At the same time, prospects for Fed monetary policy easing in the second half of the year could put significant pressure on the dollar.
Economic calendar for the U.S. and UK:
On August 15, the economic calendar includes three entries, all of medium importance. The news background may influence market sentiment in the second half of the day, but only slightly.
GBP/USD forecast and trading tips: Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from 1.3586 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3482. These trades can be kept open today. Buying the pair requires a rebound from 1.3482 or a close above the 1.3586–1.3620 zone, with a target of 1.3708.
The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
