Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A considerable number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, so throughout the day, the data will exert a steady influence on movements in the foreign exchange market. However, this influence is unlikely to be strong. Business activity indices in Germany, the EU, the UK, and the U.S. are certainly interesting, but not the most important indicators. Moreover, for these reports, the key factor is the ratio of the actual value to the forecast. If the deviation is minimal or absent, then the market reaction will also be absent. Today, traders may react to the published data not because the reports are significant, but because there are simply no other releases this week. The U.S. will also publish reports on jobless claims and new home sales, which are even less important than the business activity indices.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, the speech by Federal Reserve representative Raphael Bostic can be noted. Recall that the market sees the Fed as moving quickly toward a key rate cut in September. However, traders will likely draw conclusions tomorrow, after Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Thus, Bostic's remarks today are expected to go largely unnoticed.

The trade war remains the number one focus for traders. Since we see no signs of de-escalation, there are no grounds for the market to engage in medium-term dollar buying. As before, the U.S. currency may rely only on local growth based on technical factors or individual events/reports, but nothing more.

Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in either direction, since fundamentals and macroeconomics will once again be weak today. The euro may continue its sluggish decline after breaking through the 1.1655–1.1666 area, while the British pound can be traded from the 1.3466–1.3475 area.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.