Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1659 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. I did not get any other entry points into the market either.

The hawkish tone of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes did not trigger the expected sharp rise in the dollar. Investors are likely convinced that the central bank will cut interest rates in September, despite the lack of clear signals. Everyone is focused on Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole, so no significant market changes are likely before then. Contradictory economic signals reinforce this uncertainty. On the one hand, inflation remains high, pushing the Fed toward more decisive action. On the other hand, signs of slowing economic growth are increasingly evident, raising concerns about potential effects on employment. The key factors shaping the dollar's further movement could be upcoming economic reports—especially inflation and labor market data—along with speeches from Fed officials.

Today, data will be released on the eurozone consumer confidence index, as well as the services PMI and composite PMI for August. These indicators will help assess the current state of the regional economy and sentiment among businesses and consumers. Weak consumer confidence may reflect household concerns about inflation, interest rates, and job opportunities, which could lead to reduced spending and slower growth. Similarly, declines in the services PMI and the composite PMI could indicate weakening activity in the services sector and a worsening overall business climate. In this unstable environment, investors will carefully analyze these figures to assess the eurozone's growth prospects and potential impact on European Central Bank policy. In particular, worse-than-expected results could increase pressure on the ECB to ease monetary policy, which would negatively affect the euro. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may support the euro and reinforce expectations that the ECB will stick to a wait-and-see stance on rates.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: Buying the euro today is possible if the price reaches around 1.1653 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1687. At 1.1687, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be expected after very strong data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1639 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1653 and 1.1687 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1639 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1612, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Downward pressure on the pair will return in case of weak data. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1653 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1612 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.