In my view, the U.S. dollar now faces a far greater threat than a potential Fed rate cut in September. Several points are clear to all market participants. First, the cycle of monetary policy easing will resume in any case. Second – the rate will ultimately be reduced by 2–3%. Third – the rate cuts and the timing of easing rounds are merely a question of when.

Donald Trump continues to exert pressure on Jerome Powell, but now not only on him. Under Trump's pressure (in my opinion), FOMC Governor Adriana Kugler resigned, and another governor, Lisa Cook, may resign in the near future. The trend is obvious – Trump has set his sights on those who directly decide on rates. Why pressure Powell if he will resign anyway?

Trump wants to bring enough of his own people into the FOMC so that they will then make the "right" decisions. For the Fed, this would mean a complete loss of independence. In fact, after this, the economy and all economic indicators would effectively be controlled by Trump. If the U.S. president is not interested in the inflation rate, no one will aim to keep it under control. If President Trump decides he wants negative rates (which also cannot be ruled out), then the Fed will set them negative, regardless of inflation, the labor market, and other important indicators.

From this perspective, trust in the dollar is not just declining – it cannot exist at all. In just the first 6 months of the year, the world has seen Trump's policies and methods in action. Who can say there won't be a new trade war in the next 6 months? Or that Trump won't return to the idea of taking Greenland? The economic consequences would be serious, but the point remains that Trump intends to control the Fed and the Bureau of Statistics. That means economic indicators will be whatever Trump wants them to be, and the published figures could differ significantly from reality. In my view, demand for the U.S. currency under such prospects will only decline further.

Wave pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of this trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider purchases with targets near 1.1875 (which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci) and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, now is still a good time for buying.

Wave pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave pattern, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the bullish trend segment are now located around 1.4017. At the moment, I assume that the corrective wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 within 5 may also have been completed. Therefore, I recommend purchases with a target of 1.4017.

Basic principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.