On the hourly chart, GBP/USD on Monday turned in favor of the U.S. currency and consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3482. Early this morning, the pair rebounded from this level. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone would allow for a reversal in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3586. Consolidation below this support zone would signal further decline toward the next support zone at 1.3357–1.3364.

The wave structure remains "bearish," even though this may sound strange after the fairly strong growth in recent weeks. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background played a huge role in shaping the waves observed over the past weeks. In my view, the news background has already turned the pair toward the bulls, so the trend may soon become "bullish" again.

There was no news background on Monday, yet the bears managed to mount a counterattack to Friday's bull rally, which had no strong basis. As a result, the balance has evened out. Today, the bears hold a more favorable position, though this could change in the second half of the day when the U.S. releases durable goods orders data. This is an important report, and with few significant releases this week, it will hardly be ignored. Orders may have fallen by 4% in July, which would be a negative for the dollar. However, even a reading of -3% would be more positive than market expectations. Thus, any figure better than -4% could help bears continue their push toward the two support zones. Overall, the pound currently has enough support areas on both charts to maintain prospects for renewed growth.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the pound after rebounding from the support zone of 1.3378–1.3435. Thus, growth may continue toward the next retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3795. Another rebound from this zone would increase the likelihood of renewed growth in the pound. At present, no indicators show emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,567, while shorts decreased by 6,341. The current gap between long and short positions is 81,000 versus 106,000. As we can see, the pound is leaning more toward growth, and traders toward buying.

In my view, the pound still faces prospects of decline. The news background for the U.S. dollar in the first six months of the year was disastrous but is slowly beginning to improve. Trade tensions are easing, key agreements are being signed, and the U.S. economy is expected to recover in the second quarter thanks to tariffs and various investments in the U.S. At the same time, expectations of Fed policy easing in the second half of the year have already put significant pressure on the dollar. Thus, I do not yet see grounds for a "dollar trend."

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Change in Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On August 26, the economic calendar contains only this important entry. The influence of the news background on market sentiment will therefore be present in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips: Selling the pair was possible after consolidation below 1.3482, with a target at 1.3416–1.3425. These trades can still be held open. For new buys, consolidation above 1.3482 on the hourly chart is required, or a rebound from the 1.3416–1.3425 zone with a target at 1.3586.

Fibonacci grids are built at 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and at 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.