Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The first test of 1.3588 coincided with MACD moving far below zero, which limited downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test at 1.3588 occurred when MACD was in oversold territory, allowing Scenario #2 to play out with a 20-pip rise.

Today, reports on U.K. jobless claims, the unemployment rate, and average earnings will be published. Together, these reports offer a comprehensive view of labor market conditions, and their simultaneous publication creates a powerful flow of information that requires careful analysis.

The change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits serves as a clear indicator of short-term employment trends. A sudden increase in applications may indicate slowing economic growth or specific issues within certain sectors, prompting companies to cut back on their workforce. On the other hand, a decrease in the number of applications suggests an improving labor market and greater business confidence.

The unemployment rate, in turn, provides a broader view of the situation, reflecting the share of the working population actively looking for work. This indicator is often used as a key benchmark for determining the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Low unemployment can lead to inflationary pressure.

Finally, the change in the level of average earnings is critical for assessing inflation risks and the dynamics of consumer demand. Wage growth can stimulate consumer spending, thereby supporting economic growth. However, excessive growth without a corresponding increase in productivity can lead to a rise in inflation, forcing the central bank to take measures to contain it.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Buy at 1.3628 (green line) with a target of 1.3662 (thicker green line). Exit at 1.3662 and consider shorts for a 30–35 pip reversal. Growth is likely only as part of the ongoing uptrend. Important! Confirm MACD is above zero and just starting to rise before buying.
• Scenario #2: Buy if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3605 when MACD is oversold. This would limit downside and trigger a reversal upward. Targets: 1.3628 and 1.3662.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: Sell after a breakout below 1.3605 (red line). Target: 1.3567, where I plan to exit and reverse into buys for a 20–25 pip bounce. Sellers may become active at any moment. Important! Confirm MACD is below zero and just starting to fall before selling.
• Scenario #2: Sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3628 when MACD is overbought. This would limit upside and trigger a reversal downward. Targets: 1.3605 and 1.3567.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.