Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Euro

The first price test at 1.1757 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The euro has risen sharply, and this is no surprise given that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank has made it clear it won't do so again this year. This realization has likely acted as a catalyst for a reassessment of risks and opportunities in the currency markets. While the ECB maintains a relatively stable monetary policy, the Fed continues to respond to slowing economic growth by cutting rates. This makes the euro, at least temporarily, a more attractive currency for investors.

In the second half of the day, FOMC members John Williams and Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak. Their dovish tone could trigger a renewed sell-off in the dollar and further strengthen the euro. Market participants will be closely watching what these Federal Open Market Committee members have to say. Investors, disappointed by the dollar's indecisiveness earlier in the day, will be looking for any clues about potential changes in the Fed's policy outlook.

If Williams and Barkin take a moderate or even soft stance on the current economic situation—acknowledging growth risks and a possible recession—it could trigger the next wave of dollar selling.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the area around 1.1787 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1815. At 1.1815, I plan to exit the market and also initiate sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rally in the euro today would be more likely if the policymakers strike a dovish tone. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1767 level, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth is expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1787 and 1.1815.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1767 (red line on the chart). The target would be 1.1729, where I plan to exit the market and initiate long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points from that level. Sustained pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1787 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline is expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1767 and 1.1729.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must take great caution when making decisions to enter the market. It's usually best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly—especially if you don't use proper money management or trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.