Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3532 occurred when the MACD indicator was significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. The second test at 1.3532 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, leading to the execution of Scenario #2 to buy the pound, resulting in a 25-pip gain for the pair.

Disappointing data from the U.S. led to a strengthening of the pound, but it did not result in significant growth. The U.S. manufacturing ISM fell to 54.6% from 55.6%, with almost all its components declining. At the same time, the labor market also showed a slight slowdown, as job openings fell to 5.1 million from 7.3 million, with employers becoming more cautious in both hiring and layoffs. The dollar's slight decline was due to the sharp escalation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where the U.S. struck Iran.

Today's lack of data from the UK leaves the pound at the mercy of external forces, with no internal drivers for a reversal. Bulls are likely to have only a chance of a slight correction in GBP/USD in the first half of the day, while overall initiative will remain with sellers.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching an entry point around 1.3510 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.3532 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3532, I intend to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Growth of the pound can be expected today within the correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3497 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.3510 and 1.3532.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3497 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3475, where I plan to exit my shorts and buy back immediately (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3510, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.3497 and 1.3475.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.