Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Due to low volatility, the levels I indicated were not tested in the first half of the day.

Given the data from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, demand for the U.S. dollar is unlikely to drop significantly, even in the case of weak figures. This means buyers have everything needed to continue the upward momentum in the USD/JPY pair, especially since the yen has not seen much demand recently. However, despite a favorable technical and fundamental backdrop for further USD/JPY strengthening, potential risks should not be ignored. Geopolitical tensions, unexpected statements from central bank officials, and comments by U.S. President Donald Trump could significantly impact the currency markets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 145.67 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 146.19 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 146.19, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rally in the pair today is only likely after statements from Trump. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 145.38 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 145.67 and 146.19 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 145.38 (red line on the chart), which would result in a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.86, where I will exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Significant downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 145.67 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 145.38 and 144.86 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – Target price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – Target price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan—like the one I've presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.