Bitcoin has recovered to $6,000 and is likely to continue moving towards the only bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily chart. In this case, we can expect a further rise of $3,000–$4,000. However, it is important to remember that any growth in Bitcoin at this time is a correction, and it can end at any moment, not necessarily within any specific pattern. Bitcoin continues to trade near its annual lows, and most independent and uninterested experts predict further declines. We fully agree with these forecasts and believe that the downtrend is not over. There are no signs of completing the bearish trend: no bullish patterns and no break of the bearish structure. The fundamental background also remains negative: the Federal Reserve has no intention of lowering the key rate in 2026, capital continues to flow into the AI sector, spot demand for Bitcoin remains weak, geopolitics is unstable, and miners are adapting their equipment to the requirements of artificial intelligence. We see no reason for a strong rise in "digital gold."

Meanwhile, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes stated that a return of Bitcoin to the peaks of October last year is a predetermined outcome. Hayes also noted that the $90,000 mark will serve as a driver for bulls. If surpassed, the growth of Bitcoin will accelerate and become explosive. The businessman also pointed out two factors that will contribute to a new rally. The first factor is investment in the AI sector. According to Hayes, this direction of investment already requires lending, and central banks will focus on easing monetary policy in the coming years, thereby simplifying the issuance of loans. The second factor is the war between Iran and the U.S., which is forcing many sovereign states to stockpile raw materials instead of accumulating dollars. The war is an inflationary factor, and the development of AI is an inflationary factor as well. Governments will print new money to finance both processes, creating an environment where Bitcoin feels like a fish in water.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 1D Timeframe

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend. The trend structure is identified as bearish, with the Change of Character (CHOCH) line moving to $82,800 and a new Lower Low (LL) forming. Only above this level can we consider the bearish trend to be completed. Since there are still no signals indicating a reversal of the trend upward, we believe that the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) has formed in the $68,000–$70,700 range. New sell signals may be formed within this pattern. However, the pattern has not yet been worked out.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4H Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in a downward trend; however, the overall correction is not yet completed. The CHOCH line supporting the correction has been broken. The CHOCH line supporting the new downward trend is at the level of $65,600. Even if it is broken, this will not mean the end of the bearish trend, but rather that the correction will be extended. Following the removal of liquidity for buying, a rise began, which we had warned about. Recently, only small, local FVGs have been formed, and the reaction to them is usually very weak. The last formed FVG is bullish.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been worked out. However, we do not believe that the downward trend will end here. The last bearish FVG pattern formed in the $68,000–$70,700 range on the daily timeframe, making this area a point of interest (POI) for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues the second phase of the correction, but sell trades remain more attractive, as any rise now is inherently a correction. Currently, only a bullish FVG is in place on the 4-hour timeframe.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – Change of Character in trend structure.

Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Consequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverse Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react to it and impulsively breaks through, then tests it from the other side.

OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to capture liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.